Asian markets will become the major driver of growth in international gas trade in the coming decade, according to McKinsey & Company energy director, Matthew Rogers.
“Demand from China, India and emerging importers will grow at 8-9 per cent a year,” Mr Rogers said, who is scheduled to deliver an international forecast in one of the top plenary sessions at APPEA 2011 Conference and Exhibition in April.
China’s gas demand, alone, is expected to grow by between 55 and 60 billion cubic metres in 2015, and India’s growth potential is not far behind.
But the unconventional gas revolution triggered by the US has created new uncertainty for Australian gas exporters and Rogers anticipates that the transformation will have a critical impact on the demand for LNG.
China and India’s huge shale gas resources will offer significant opportunities to Australian LNG producers in the next decade, however, in the long-term their development of shale gas will reduce their LNG demand.
At the same time, demand for gas in South East Asia will also grow, creating new opportunities for Australian LNG exporters.
“Australian producers should not forget their traditional markets and the emerging Asian LNG markets – Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines,” Mr Rogers said.
Matthew Rogers’ work at McKinsey focuses on how technology and innovation restructure markets, particularly in energy and capital-intensive industries. He recently rejoined McKinsey after serving as the senior advisor to the US Secretary of Energy for Recovery Act Implementation.