BloombergNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2026 says solar will become the world’s largest generator of electricity by 2032, driven by massive overcapacity and falling prices.
The report also reveals an upswing in the deployment of big batteries, with storage set to increase 17-fold from 223GW in 2025 to 3.8TW by 2035.
BNEF’s updated Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) maps out how the energy system is most likely to evolve over the next decade and through 2050.
The ETS signals the start of an electricity-led era, with electricity meeting two-thirds of new energy demand over the next 24 years, while natural gas supplies another 25%. The demand is largely driven by electric vehicles, data centres, and other electrification.
Global data centre capacity reached 84GW in 2025, consuming 500TWh of electricity, or 1.9% of global total demand. This marks a 20% increase year-on-year. Demand from data centers more than doubles to 1,114TWh (3.6% of total demand) by 2050, representing a 10th of electricity consumed worldwide.
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Energy transition timelines diverge widely by region.
China is rapidly electrifying, with electricity already the dominant final energy carrier by 2023 and coal’s share of power generation falling from about 54% in 2025 to 19% in 2035 and 7% by 2050.
In India, electricity overtakes oil and coal by 2041 despite continued coal use in industry.
In Europe, electricity becomes the dominant fuel by 2043, while the US transitions more slowly, reaching that point in 2047.
BloombergNEF chief economist David Hostert said, “We’re living in another moment of crisis, but unlike in past decades, today there are real options for countries to react.
“We now have viable technologies that can be deployed at scale and fast, at an overall lower cost to the system than the fossil fuel technologies that used to be the primary choice.
“Through clean power and electrification we can strengthen energy security and reduce harmful emissions along the way.”
BloombergNEF head of energy economics Matthias Kimmel said, “As EVs, data centers, population growth and industrial activity spur electricity demand, the world is in a race to meet rising energy demand with the most efficient, least-cost technologies.
NEO shows that solar becomes the world’s largest generator overall by 2032, while storage jumps 17-fold to 3.8TW by 2050, underscoring how clean technologies are increasingly critical to energy security, system flexibility and meeting the world’s growing power needs.”
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Other key findings from the report include:
- Global electricity demand has more than doubled since 2000, driven primarily by rising consumption in buildings and industry as populations grow and incomes increase. In the ETS, demand rises a further 29% by 2035 and 69% by 2050.
- This year’s New Energy Outlook includes a major, reworked update to the Net Zero Scenario—a credible maximum-effort pathway that keeps global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. BNEF finds that achieving 1.5 degrees Celsius is no longer feasible due to persistently high emissions and continued investment in emissions-intensive assets.
- Despite $0.5 trillion in corporate equity and billions in government support over five years for startups and other firms, the next great low-cost energy technology has yet to emerge. Hopes are high for new nuclear, geothermal or storage technologies, but none has been proven sufficiently at scale—yet.
- China remains the largest contributor to global emissions reductions under the ETS, with emissions projected to decline 17% from their 2023 peak by 2030. By 2050, they fall nearly 50% from their peak, although they remain well above where the US or Europe are today.
