Australia’s first large-scale randomised controlled study of peer-to-peer solar trading has produced compelling evidence that there is a more effective way to connect consumers with rooftop solar than the Commonwealth’s Solar Sharer Offer.
The Deakin University study found that time-matched energy pricing shifted household electricity demand by up to 18% into periods when solar was actually generating, while reducing electricity costs for buyers, increasing returns for participating solar owners and improving perceptions of fairness across the electricity market.
Importantly, these outcomes were achieved without requiring retailers to provide electricity at zero cost or absorb network charges outside their control as proposed under the Solar Sharer Offer (SSO) mandate.
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The Virtual Energy Network (VEN) study was led by Deakin Business School and funded by Energy Consumers Australia with support from ReThink Sustainability, WinZero, and Enosi Australia. It is Australia’s first causal evaluation of peer-to-peer electricity trading using a phase-in randomised controlled trial—the gold standard methodology to establish cause and effect.
The findings come at a pivotal moment for Australia’s electricity market. From 1 July, the SSO scheme will require participating retailers to offer electricity at zero cents during a designated three-hour daytime window, including the network component, regardless of whether solar rooftops and farms are actually generating.
Enosi founder and CEO Steve Hoy said the research demonstrated that Australia’s energy transition does not require a choice between supporting consumers and maintaining commercially sustainable retailers.
“Customers and retailers will be better off when consumption is matched to generation,” Hoy said.
“This is the first time we’ve had rigorous causal evidence. It shows that consumers respond exactly as the energy transition needs them to if lower prices reflect when renewable energy is actually available.
“The lesson isn’t simply that people like cheaper electricity. It’s that when electricity is matched to real renewable generation, consumers shift demand, solar owners are rewarded more fairly, and retailers don’t have to underwrite costs outside their control.
“Australia is entering a new era of distributed energy. Solar Sharer is on the right track but a better approach is to reward renewable consumption when it actually occurs, rather than relying on blunt pricing mechanisms that disconnect prices from the reality of the grid.”
Rather than relying on regulated short three-hour zero-price periods, the study found that matching consumers to electricity generated from actual solar production through time-based pricing can deliver many of the same affordability and accessibility objectives while preserving economically efficient market signals.
Retailers are not forced to take on the risk that cloudy days mean their wholesale costs are not covered, nor do they have to subsidise network charges that are not zero during these hours. Furthermore, the study demonstrated that orchestrated demand shift is achievable without needing to take control of consumer energy resources, a key issue for VPP take up.
Conducted across Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, the study involved 266 participants across 296 sites operating through retailer Energy Locals using Enosi’s Powertracer platform.
The results demonstrate that when consumers receive price signals linked to actual renewable generation, they naturally shift electricity consumption into solar-rich periods without mandates or artificial pricing.
Between 8am and 4pm, participants using peer-to-peer matching sourced almost all of their imported electricity from shared solar generation. Around one-third of participants owned no rooftop solar, demonstrating that the benefits of distributed renewable generation can also be extended to renters, apartment residents and households unable to install panels.
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For retailers confronting record rooftop solar penetration, increasingly frequent negative wholesale prices and the challenge of orchestrating flexible demand, the findings point towards a market model that aligns customer behaviour with the physical operation of the electricity system rather than predetermined clock times.
The research also demonstrates that interval-level energy matching is no longer experimental.
The Deakin VEN study findings are expected to contribute to ongoing discussions around consumer energy resources, peer-to-peer energy trading, flexible retail products, solar for apartments, virtual power plants and future National Electricity Market reforms.
