Tasmania and South Australia are moving towards a position where they could generate more renewable energy than they could consume, even with greater energy storage, according to the latest Green Energy Markets report.
The monthly Renewable Energy Index for June 2018 looks at how each state is tracking with renewable energy growth.
“Last month we reported that the NEM was on track to 33.3 per cent renewables by 2020, almost a doubling compared to 2015, and by 2030 it will be 39 per cent with no new policy,” the report says.
“This month we examine how this transition is unfolding by state.”
The report says Tasmania and South Australia has a future as “clean power exporters”.
South Australia is on track to renewables generation equal to 70 per cent of the state’s electricity consumption by 2020 and 85 per cent by 2030.
Its full pipeline of projects undergoing development could generate more than twice the state’s 2030 consumption, the report reveals.
“Thanks to two new wind farms, Tasmania can continue to meet its needs entirely with renewable energy,” it says.
“But it could generate 20 per cent more renewable energy than it consumes if its development projects were to proceed to construction.”
According to the index, NSW will fall short of 20 per cent renewables by 2020, lagging behind the rest of the NEM.
The state is on track to hit 19.7 per cent renewables by 2020 and 26.1 per cent by 2030.
“Other states are outpacing it in terms of project development but even so its pipeline could generate more than half its expected 2030 electricity consumption if they were to be constructed,” the report says.
Victoria is undergoing a rapid transition from a power system dominated by brown coal to one where close to half of consumption is met by renewables.
“By 2020, Victorian renewables plants will generate 39.4 per cent of the state’s power consumption, a dramatic expansion from the 17.7 per cent share in 2015,” the index states.
“By 2030, this is likely to grow to 45.7 per cent.”
Between 2010 and 2015 there was almost no expansion in large-scale renewables in QLD and renewables represented just 7.4 per cent of 2015 consumption, however, by 2020, 25 per cent of the state will be powered by renewables.
“Queensland has awoken from its renewable slumber and has demonstrated the fastest growth in renewables supply and development,” the report says.
“More impressive is that the projects being pursued by companies for development could generate power equal to more than 90 per cent of consumption in 2030.”