New modelling released by the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) shows that reforming how electricity network costs are recovered could deliver up to $6 billion in savings over the next 15 years, reducing bills for households and small businesses across Australia.
The modelling shows reforms would lower costs for most households—with or without solar or batteries—with some families saving up to $740 a year on their electricity bills annually by 2040.
Approximately two-thirds of households who are currently unable to have solar or batteries are projected to be better off.
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The modelling assumes a scenario in which retailers take no other action and directly pass network costs onto consumers, and there are no other consumer protections applied. Where consumers may face higher bills, independent analysis from HoustonKemp Economists, commissioned by the AEMC, sets out a range of practical options to protect them.
The AEMC has not yet reached final recommendations—all findings will be considered alongside the more than 2,700 submissions received before the Final Report is published in June 2026.
AEMC chair Anna Collyer said the analysis reflected how the energy system had changed, and why pricing needed to catch up.
“Australia’s energy system has changed dramatically over the past decade. Consumers are now generators, sending power back to the grid from solar panels and batteries, and the way we charge for the network needs to keep pace with that change,” she said.
“This analysis shows what is possible if we get the settings right: a cheaper, more efficient grid that delivers up to $6 billion in savings for all consumers, better rewards for those investing in solar and batteries, and a fairer share of costs for those who cannot.”
The figures are based on cautious assumptions—deliberately so, the AEMC says, in order to identify where protections may be needed.
They assume retailers pass costs directly to consumers with no additional protections in place, and that uptake of gas switching and EV adoption remains the same as under current arrangements, meaning the full benefits of reform-driven electrification are not captured.
“This is the most empirically grounded analysis of network tariff reform we have published. It draws on over 400 million real data points from households across 10 distribution networks—not assumptions, but actual consumption patterns from actual customers over a full year,” Collyer said.
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“Getting network pricing right creates the foundation for a smarter energy market, one where retailers can offer simpler, more innovative products, consumers are rewarded for the choices they make, and the benefits of the energy transition flow to every Australian, not just those who can afford to invest in it.”
More information is available here.
