A sobering report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reveals there is a 91% chance global temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year in the next five years.
The report, compiled by the world’s top scientists, shows global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, with Arctic temperature anomalies expected to continue to be higher than the global mean.
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The Global Annual-to-Decadal Update takes a look at the observed climate over the past five years and gives regional predictions for temperatures and precipitation over the next five years.
Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026–2030 are predicted to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average. It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, according to the update.
The Climate Council says the findings are yet another alarm bell signalling dangerous consequences for Australians.
“Continental land masses like Australia heat up faster than the oceans, and so heat up more than the global average,” Climate Councillor Adjunct Professor Andrew Watkins says.
“The climate whiplash we have seen already this year, from flooding rains to heatwaves and fierce fires, sometimes within days—will intensify with rising temperatures, creating more disruption, dislocation and devastation for communities across Australia.”
“The burning of coal, oil, and gas is driving these rising temperatures. The further and faster we cut climate pollution this decade, the safer our kids will be.”
Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie says, “This is an extremely worrying forecast. Behind these numbers is the real climate harm for Australians, more dangerous fire seasons, more intense floods, more devastating heatwaves. Every fraction of a degree of warming makes life harder and more dangerous.”
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“Yet still massive, multinational fossil fuel companies who are warming the planet, continue to get a billion-dollar free ride through subsidies and foregone taxes. Why are Aussie taxpayers subsidising some of the most profitable companies in the world so they can keep polluting? The government needs to put the brakes on fossil fuels and pump the accelerator on expanding renewables.”
