According to new modelling commissioned by the Clean Energy Council, $58 billion worth of new private investment in renewables would be wiped from Australia’s economy under the Coalition’s energy agenda.
New analysis by Green Energy Markets on behalf of the Clean Energy Council found that almost 29GW of new investment in large-scale solar and wind projects would be foregone under the Coalition’s nuclear plan (modelled by Frontier Economics), which caps renewable energy generation at 54%, compared to the Government’s 82% target by 2030.
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It includes $42.6 billion (16GW) of wind projects and $15.6 billion (13GW) of solar projects that would be surrendered, with Australia foregoing 37,700 full-time equivalent clean energy construction jobs and 5,000 operations and maintenance jobs between 2026-2030.
A 54% renewable energy cap would also result in a loss of up to $68 billion of economic activity, which will be generated for regional Australia as modelled by the Regional Australia Institute and a loss of up to $3.4 billion in landholder payments for those hosting renewable assets on their property and $696 million in direct community contributions.
Clean Energy Council CEO Kane Thornton said, “Capping renewables at 54% would not only see Australia miss out on billions of dollars of capital investment and economic growth, but thousands of jobs.
“The clean energy sector injected $40 billion in essential electricity infrastructure into the national economy over the past five years alone. We need all sides of politics to embrace this private-sector investment into regional Australia and the thousands of well-paid jobs this industry generates every year.”
Australian power bills would also be worse off under the Coalition’s plan to cap renewables at 54%, with the average annual household energy bills forecast to see an increase of $449 in 2030, according to research by Jacobs.
The latest Green Energy Markets analysis forecasts that Australia would achieve 54% renewables by 2028 (54.9% in 2028), based on projects which are already financially committed or under construction today. The analysis assumes that the government’s 82% renewable energy target by 2030 would be achieved based on a combination of renewable energy generation already in operation, projects that have reached financial close, projects under construction, as well as the vast pipeline of projects with planning approval or in early-stage development.
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“To deliver a successful energy transition, as our ageing coal-fired power stations retire, Australia needs 6.45GW, on average, of new renewable energy generation to come online each year, over the next six years—that’s 29GW of capacity in addition to the 9.8GW already under construction, for us to hit 82%,” Thornton said.
“The energy sector doesn’t plan based on three-to-four-year election cycles. These are 30–40-year investment decisions and investors need to see continued confidence in the sector through stable, long-term policy settings to keep investing in Australia.”
