The national electricity market (NEM) will receive 33.3 per cent of its power from renewable energy by 2030, according to the latest Green Energy Markets report.
The figures, published in theMay Renewable Energy Index, are based on solar and wind farms already under construction or contracted plus rooftop solar maintaining stable installation levels.
The report also states the national energy guarantee (NEG) is unlikely to make any difference to power station investment or emissions unless the emission target is strengthened.
“Even if contracting and construction commitments to solar farms and wind farms halted from today, ongoing installations of rooftop solar should see renewables share reaching 39 per cent by 2030,” the report says.
“Given a range of corporate procurement tenders are also underway it is now reasonably likely renewables will exceed 40 per cent share by 2030.
“This substantially exceeds the emission reduction ambition within the NEG.
“Modelling for the Energy Security Board estimated the emission target would be achieved with 36 per cent renewables’ share.”
The report claims the NEG appears to do little to support investment in new generating capacity, given the proposed Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro expansion is expected to resolve reliability challenges.
“However, in spite of renewable energy’s significant growth to 2030, Australia’s overall emissions across the entire economy are still expected to exceed our Paris target for 26 per cent – 28 per cent emission reductions across the entire economy, not just electricity,” the report says.