Renewable energy construction has tripled over the past four years, and is forecast to increase to a peak level of $23 billion in 2029, according to new analysis from industry forecasting company Macromonitor.
The report, Renewable Energy Construction Outlook—Australia, provides detailed forecasts for renewable energy construction spending in Australia, covering all major types of renewables, including solar, wind, battery, hydro and biomass.
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Macromonitor estimates that the value of work done in the renewable energy sector has surged from $4.4 billion in 2020/21 to $13.2 billion in 2024/25 (in constant 2022/23 prices). This momentum is expected to accelerate further, driven by ambitious national targets, the Federal Government’s Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS), and the urgent need to replace retiring coal assets with 40GW of new capacity by 2030.
Over the five years from 2025/26 to 2029/30, Australia is projected to add an average of 8.9GW of new renewable capacity each year, more than triple the 2.7GW annual average of the past five years.
“The data confirms that the energy transition has moved from planning to delivery phase,” said Dr Abdul Hannan, economist at Macromonitor and lead author of the report.
“Activity has already tripled, and that momentum will build further. With over 10GW of capacity awarded in late 2025 alone through the CIS, the pipeline for the next five years is substantial.”
While much of the focus has been on wind and solar, the report identifies battery storage as the breakout performer of the current financial year.
“Battery storage construction has become a cornerstone of the transition, rising from just $89 million in 2019/20 to $6.4 billion in 2024/25, and is forecast to remain near this level for the next three years,” Dr Hannan said.
“Building large-scale battery storage is now critical for maintaining a stable grid through the transition.”
The report highlights that while solar construction is recovering and expected to peak at $6.4 billion in 2027/28, the wind sector is poised for the most dramatic acceleration, particularly with the development of offshore zones in Victoria and New South Wales.
“We forecast wind energy construction to accelerate to a record $10.1 billion in 2029/30,” Dr Hannan said.
“As we see onshore pipelines mature and offshore wind projects in Victoria and NSW move toward construction, wind will become the dominant driver of energy infrastructure spending.”
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To connect this new generation, transmission construction is also set to rise strongly, led by major projects such as CopperString 2.0, HumeLink, and Marinus Link.
Despite the strong outlook, Macromonitor warns that high construction costs, grid-connection delays, and complex planning processes remain significant risks.
“Securing financial close continues to be a major barrier for many developers,” Dr Hannan added.
“As the CIS expands, a key test will be whether auction pricing can align with the requirements of lenders, often needing extra backing through corporate Power Purchase Agreements.”
Macromonitor expects a moderate downturn in renewable energy construction after 2030. However, activity is still projected to remain above historical levels, which implies substantial ongoing growth in total renewable generation capacity.
