Australia will need to triple the National Electricity Market (NEM)’s power capacity by 2030 to be on track for net zero by 2050—requiring a rapid rollout of wind and solar power, transmission, storage, electric vehicles, and heat pumps as we replace our coal fleet.
This is a key finding of the Net Zero Australia project, which has released final modelling results of pathways to net zero.
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Net Zero Australia is a partnership of The University of Melbourne, The University of Queensland, Princeton University’s Andlinger Center for Energy and Environment, and Nous Group.
Chair of the Net Zero Australia Steering Committee, Emeritus Professor Robin Batterham, said Net Zero Australia has set a new benchmark in analysing what it would take for Australia to decarbonise its economy and exports.
“Our results are unprecedented in their detail, rigour and transparency,” Professor Batterham said.
“Our aim is to inform the national debate with better evidence about the diverse preferences of the Australian community.
“This includes reaching net zero with renewables only, or with different mixes of renewables and low-emission uses of fossil fuels, and with different rates of electrification of our energy use. We have even considered whether nuclear energy has a role to play.
“We are not pushing a preferred pathway, rather we are illustrating a range of potential pathways.
“Our assumptions and detailed results are all public so they can be used by governments, businesses, and communities. They include projections for potential energy sources, mapping of possible land use change, and analysis of abatement from farming and other land uses.”
Professor Michael Brear (Director of the Melbourne Energy Institute at the University of Melbourne) said the modelling shows that Australia will need all viable options to transform its energy system at an unprecedented pace and scale.
“Renewables and electrification, supported by a major expansion of transmission lines and storage, are keys to net zero,” Professor Brear said.
“But we will need an all technology, hands on deck approach. That includes a large increase in permanent carbon storage, deep underground and in vegetation, and a doubling of gas-fired power capacity to support renewables and energy storage.
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“Our modelling finds that there would be no role for nuclear energy unless costs fall sharply (to around 30% lower than current international best practice) and renewable energy growth is constrained.”
Net Zero Australia is sponsored by Worley, Dow, Future Fuels Cooperative Research Centre, Future Energy Exports (FEnEx) Cooperative Research Centre, APA Group and Minderoo Foundation.
Full modelling is available at www.netzeroaustralia.net.au.
