The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has released its Quarterly Energy Dynamics report for Q4 2024, revealing record-breaking demand levels in the National Electricity Market (NEM) and a surge in renewable energy contributions, highlighting the transformation of Australia’s energy system.
Driven by higher temperatures and a growing electrification shift from gas to electricity, the NEM experienced a new December quarter maximum demand record of 33,716MW and an average quarterly total demand record of 23,737MW, a 2.4% year-on-year increase.
At the same time, rooftop solar and grid-scale solar reached new output records, increasing by 18% and 9%, respectively. This surge led to minimum demand records across the NEM and in Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia, and Tasmania.
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AEMO executive general manager reform delivery Violette Mouchaileh said, “The rise in rooftop solar output, coupled with record low coal-generation availability, resulted in coal-fired generation contributing less than 50% of the NEM’s total generation for the first time.
“Renewable energy supplied a record 46% of the market’s electricity, peaking at 75.6% for a period on 6 November, driving emissions to record low levels,” she said.
Wholesale electricity prices averaged $88/MWh in Q4 2024, representing an 83% increase compared to a very mild Q4 2023, but 26% lower than the previous quarter average of $119/MWh.
New South Wales and Queensland experienced record Q4 wholesale prices of $143/MWh and $127/MWh, respectively, due to high demand, coal generation unavailability, and transmission constraints limiting northern flow of lower-cost energy.
Victoria recorded the lowest average price at $45/MWh, followed by South Australia at $52/MWh and Tasmania at $74/MWh.
“Recent operating conditions highlight the role new transmission projects underway—such as VNI West, Project EnergyConnect and HumeLink—will play in sharing the lowest-cost energy throughout the NEM,” Mouchaileh said.
The quarter also saw record-high instances of negative prices in the NEM, with negative price events occurring 23.1% of the time, an increase from the previous high of 19.9% recorded in Q4 2023.
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Regional records for negative price frequencies were also set in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, at 13.3%, 34.3%, and 38%, respectively.
In Western Australia, coal generation dropped by 19.5% due to reduced coal plant availability. This shortfall was offset by increases in rooftop solar (20.3%), gas (14.4%), and battery contributions (1,400%). Average energy prices remained relatively unchanged from the previous quarter at $79.93/MWh.
“Increased battery storage in Western Australia helped the state hit a new quarterly average renewable contribution record of 46.4% and a renewable energy peak of 85.1%,” Mouchaileh said.
