According to independent modelling released by the Clean Energy Council, Australian power bills could jump by 30% for households and 41% for small businesses by 2030 if the transition to a renewable grid stalls.
The modelling is outlined in a new report titled The Impact of a Delayed Transition on Electricity Bills, prepared by global engineering and professional services firm Jacobs. It compares the Australian Government’s current ambition of 82% renewable energy by 2030 with the alternative, modelled by Frontier Economics for the Coalition, which limits renewable energy at 54% and relies on coal and gas while waiting for nuclear power.
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The modelling found that relying on coal power and significant amounts of expensive gas generation for longer would increase the average household bill by $449 a year in 2030 and $877 for a small business.
Clean Energy Council CEO Kane Thornton said, “Under this scenario Australia would have to increase its reliance on increasingly expensive and unreliable old coal generation, as well as significantly increase gas generation which is a much more expensive energy source. The net impact is higher power prices for all Australian homes and small businesses.”
The modelling also looked at a second likely scenario—the impact of a coal-fired power station experiencing a significant outage in the next five years. It found household bills would increase by as much as $606 per annum in 2030 and small businesses would see an additional cost of $1182 to their energy bill. A similar event occurred in 2021 with the failure of Callide C in Queensland, which saw a price hike of nearly 20%—or three times the national average.
“Our modelling confirms that continuing to deploy renewable energy will keep wholesale electricity prices as low as possible. Clean energy not only works for Australia but it’s the cheapest path forward for our electricity bills,” Thornton said.
“Getting more renewables into our system, such as solar and wind and backed by pumped hydro, batteries and small amounts of gas, is the cheapest and most reliable way to keep energy bills as low as possible for Australians.
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Thornton said while gas would play a small but important role in electricity generation over the coming decade, stalling renewable energy deployment would see the need for a dramatic increase in gas, which would drive power prices significantly higher. Under this scenario Australians would pay a total of $2.3-$3 billion for gas-fired electricity in 2030, compared to the $770 million if we maintain the current path.
“Australians simply can’t afford to put the handbrake on renewables and choose a path of more expensive electricity while we sit and wait for nuclear plants that are at best 15-20 years away. Renewables are here right now and we should be using as much of this cheaper energy as we possibly can,” Thornton said.
