AEMO has released stage one of the Draft 2025 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report (IASR) for consultation.
Every two years, AEMO is required by the National Electricity Rules to consult and produce the IASR, which includes future energy scenarios that inform AEMO’s forecasting and planning analysis and publications, such as the Integrated System Plan (ISP).
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AEMO executive general manager system design Merryn York says the scenarios in the Draft 2025 IASR are consistent with recent versions, representing plausible future worlds within which the energy transition occurs.
“Scenarios in the Draft 2025 IASR maintain general consistency with the 2023 scenarios, applied in the 2024 ISP, with each scenario evaluating the power system needs to achieve government policy and reflecting broader uncertainties affecting the energy transition,” York says.
“This consistency strikes the right balance to explore development opportunities across the scenarios, while also exploring uncertainties through sensitivity analysis.”
The Step Change scenario continues to provide central conditions to evaluate power system needs to achieve Australia’s net zero transition. While the Progressive Change and Green Energy scenarios provide faster and slower paces of change and associated changes to the power system needs.
AEMO is seeking stakeholder feedback on two variants to the Green Energy scenario: Green Energy Exports and Green Energy Industries, the latter having reduced focus on export opportunities but both representing a high growth, rapid transition.
The scenarios consider commitments by Australia’s governments that meet the criteria under the National Electricity Rules, including renewable generation goals and emissions-reductions targets, as captured in the Australian Energy Market Commission’s Targets statement for greenhouse gas emissions.
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“We have made adjustments to the scenario parameters based on stakeholder feedback on areas such as green energy developments and the growing role for data centres, as outlined in the 2025 IASR Scenarios consultation,” York says.
“We are also seeking further input regarding the parameters of the most ambitious scenario for planning purposes, particularly in relation to the inclusion of hydrogen for export versus use in green industries.”
